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A |     本篇评级为★★★,主要围绕以下内容展开:                    1、政策出现重要"微调"线索,市场节奏会提前吗?          2、消费赛道有起色,透支了吗?          3、如何看科技回调的深度?          4、从美国旧金山断电看一个赛道                    如有疑问请以音频内容为准,添加妙投小虎哥微信:miaotou515,入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。                   新闻解读评级说明:五星重磅,四星重要,三星级以下大家选择听。                   1、政策出现重要"微调"线索,市场节奏会提前吗?                    一起来看一下这个周末发生了哪些重要消息,又给年底的市场提供了哪些线索。

B |     

A rescue boat is seen moves through a flooded area in Longzhou, South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, on August 24, 2026, after heavy rainfall brought by Typhoon Narra and upstream inflows caused water levels along the Zuojiang River to rise. Photo: VCG
    A rescue boat is seen moves through a flooded area in Longzhou, South China's Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, on August 24, 2026, after heavy rainfall brought by Typhoon Narra and upstream inflows caused water levels along the Zuojiang River to rise. Photo: VCGTyphoon Narra, the 19th typhoon of the year, made landfall along the coast of Changjiang county in South China's Hainan Province at around 6:40 pm on Tuesday, after bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to southern regions, triggering evacuation of 50,000 people across Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.
Guangxi faced its most severe flooding in decades, with 14 rivers at 20 hydrological stations surpassing warning levels by 0.37 to 7.69 meters. The Mingjiang River recorded its highest flood peak since records began in 1953, surging 6.69 meters above the warning level, while the Zuojiang River saw its highest levels since 1986, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Tuesday. 
According to a report from China News Service, the flood which hit the Zuojiang River brought the peak water level to 123.54 meters, 7.34 meters above the warning level. 
A total of 15,535 people in Longzhou county have been evacuated and relocated, while rescue teams are carrying out relief operations for affected residents, China News reported on Tuesday.
Longzhou county lies along the China-Vietnam border, where the Ping'er River, an upstream tributary of the Zuojiang River, flows across the border. Flood conditions in Longzhou therefore depend not only on local rainfall but also on water flowing in from Vietnam. The Chinese side remains in daily contact with the Vietnamese side to keep track of inflows along the Ping'er River, China News Service reported.
An earlier report from Xinhua said that, as of Sunday, the typhoon had affected 61,000 people across Guangxi, with 54,000 people relocated due to the disaster and 8,087 placed in emergency shelters. 
Since forming on August 21, Typhoon Narra has barely moved, lingering over the Beibu Gulf. As of 1 pm Tuesday, its center was located over the Beibu Gulf about 55 kilometers west-northwest of Dongfang city in South China's Hainan Province, maintaining tropical storm intensity, China Central Television (CCTV) News reported on Tuesday. 
The Guangxi water resources authority on Tuesday upgraded its flood-control emergency response for Guigang, while maintaining higher-level responses in several other cities, including Chongzuo, Fangchenggang and Nanning, CCTV reported. 
China's National Meteorological Center (NMC) said Typhoon Narra would make landfall or brush past Hainan, making landfall in Guangdong and Guangxi coastal areas on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. It was packing winds of up to 20 meters per second near its center, with gale-force winds extending 100 to 150 kilometers outward — roughly comparable to the distance between New York City and Philadelphia. Narra is expected to weaken rapidly after making landfall.  
Global Times 

C |                    先看政策。

D | 其实12月初我们就给大家分析过,国内两场重要会议奠定了总体基调:12月属于短期动荡行情,会议结束后市场需要向下消化预期差,普遍能感受到压力,尤其是一些热门板块。上周科技赛道整体回调,排在全市场倒数前列;相反,政策顺风受益的板块里,消费表现最热——除商业航天“红得发紫”外,赛道涨幅前五名中有四个都与消费相关,这就是政策的威力:在政策引导下,市场出现短期轮动。                   接下来的问题是:节奏会怎样?如果12月属于动荡行情,那么越接近1月,越可能出现转机,尤其是1月中下旬。我们从政策上可以找到几条线索:                    第一,上周四,中央财经委发布对中央经济工作会议的“十问十答”解读稿,其中提到:“我们最近也关注到这几个月消费和投资增速有所放缓,需要持续加力扩内需。

E | ”这句话意味着大方向确定后,局部节奏、力度可能根据市场情况微调。

F |                    第二,本周召开的国常会新闻通稿里出现“靠前发力抓落实,以扎实有效的工作巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头”的表述,最值得关注的正是“靠前发力抓落实”。

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Published on:05:01:48


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